Alternative future scenarios for open space protection in Kane County

Kane County is located on the western fringe of the greater Chicago metropolitan area. Development pressures there have caused rapid increases in land consumption and property values. The county’s Forest Preserve District is actively purchasing land for conservation, but it is important to understand the long-term costs associated with current conservation goals. We developed 18 future scenarios to identify costs associated with acquisition, restoration, and long-term maintenance of conservation lands in Kane County. We evaluated these scenarios using a GIS-based framework for alternative futures modeling that accounted for urban growth as well as conservation suitability. Longterm costs were found to be less in areas of the county with less developed land compared to scenarios which included areas that have experienced higher levels or urban or suburban growth. By focusing on these less developed areas it was possible to build larger core reserves with a considerably smaller capital for land acquisition. Additionally, if restoration was not a focus, it is possible for larger quantities of more contiguous land to be acquired with less threat of impact from urban fragmentation. The results of our project will foster explicit consideration of the long-term costs associated with conservation strategies in Kane County, Illinois, as well as providing a means for evaluation of existing conservation goals. This low cost, tractable framework for scenario based modeling will benefit organizations with similar research objectives.